Prediction of Local level election 2074

As the first level of local elections is done, people are now curious about the result. My late post on whom to elect in this local election has reached out to 400 people who had read it but don't know if they had actually followed it.
The vote count has started from late night in some areas and from early morning today. Television channels, online news portal, FMs have started providing the first vote count updates from different parts where the count has begun from late night. Well, I am more concerned with the result in the major metro cities of Nepal. There are 4 metro cities, all of which conducts the local election on Baishak 31 (Yesterday).

Exit polls also have given out some prediction result. Due to the collaboration between some ruling parties vs opposition parties, the election result can be told to be obvious. But it can not be assured that the collaboration will yield exactly the same result.

The exit polls have already showed that the same big parties will have major seats around the 3 states, namely 3,4,6. So, its gonna be Nepali Congress (NC), Yemale (UML) and Maoists who will rule the result. For the highest no of seats, NC and UML will definitely be head to head. As per the Exit polls and the trend for the people preference for opposition due to their ultra vocal agendas, UML is known to lead in the no of seats. There could be only few no of seats difference between UML and NC.

After NC and UML, there will be huge gap for the no of seats win by Maoists. The newly united Ra.Pra.Pa may assume the fourth position after the Maoist Party but the no of seats for both the parties is known to be very low.

Lets put my prediction for the Mayor of major 4 Metro cities of Nepal.

Last Constituent election, I have done the same for the prediction of  all 10 areas of Kathmandu where nine of them came true. Find out here.

Pokhara is now the biggest metro city of Nepal. Here, there is collaboration between NC, Maoists for NC Mayor. So the heavy weight of NC candidate is likely to win the Mayoral position. But the competition is known to be tough between NC and UML candidates here.

Kathmandu is the home to the highest number of educated voters in Nepal. But are they going to make some changes in the election result here?? Well that is quite doubtful!!! Independent candidates from Bibeksheel: Ranju Darshana and Sajha Party's Kishore Thapa are in the limelight here, apart from major parties candidate. Mayor candidate from UML is supported by Ra. Pra. Pa. So it seems UML Bidhya Sundar Shakya may win but it is also equal likely for NC Raju Raj Joshi to lead KTM mayor. It is because in the last Constituent assembly election, NC had a good position here. As it is told that both the independent candidates Ranjana and Kishore will swing votes from NC supporters, UML's candidate is in upper hand. Now, it all depends on how much votes Ranjana and Kishore Thapa have stolen from NC. 

Lalitpur is another major metro city of Nepal. In the last Constituent assembly election, Congress had a landslide victory in all of the areas there. So, despite the alliance between UML, Ra.Pra.Pa, NC is most likely to win here.

Bharatpur: As NC has decided formally to support Maoists candidate Renu Dahal, she may win the mayoral position if NC supporters follow it accordingly. As we have heard some dissatisfaction for this collaboration, it is equally likely for the UML candidate to come as winner. Even if fifty percent of NC supporters follow their central whim, Renu Dahal (the daughter of current PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal a.k.a Prachanda) will win.

No matter who wins, I expect major changes to make our lives better here in the metro cities and other areas. When the vote count results are coming, I have found this (below) in the morning. Hope this sort of issues will be solved from the newly elected people's representative.

Disclaimer: The predictions are solely based on my intuition and what I have found, following news reports and discussing with the people from different places. 

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Whom to vote in Local Election 2074?

Three levels of elections are going to happen in Nepal as per the implementation of New Constitution of Nepal 2073. The first phase of Local Election is happening tomorrow from 7 am to 5 pm in 3 states of Nepal. Ballot for this local level election is also on paper, where we should put the swastika stamp on. I wonder when will Nepal adopt electronic voting on large scale for National elections.Talking about this Local election happening after 2 decades, people are so excited that the election turnout is known to be very high.

There are seven position to vote for this local election, either in Village bodies or Municipalities.They are: Mayor or Village Chairman, Deputy Mayor or Deputy Chairman of Village, Ward Chairman, Women Ward member, Dalit Women Ward member and two open Ward members. 

This election is about electing people either from political parties or independent for a local government. Which is directly related to the local level works inside the Village, Municipality and Ward. So, people should be more focused on the candidate for that position. Do not hesitate to ponder on the person's capability to lead the local level issues including development. But he/ she need not be tested with previous experience in any bigger position. His character and social friendliness behavior is also equally important.

Try to mix up for the people in different parties for different position with that capability. Do not follow blindly for any other thoughts and belief. Look for the education qualification in the person, prefer ones with higher than bachelor studies.

I do not mean, not to evaluate the candidates political agenda as it is also relevant. You do not want to stamp the position from a party whose ideology is completely different from you. They will certainly use that vote counts to show their popularity, which you will regret later.

Rule of law, democracy, development issue, transparency are mostly present in the party's manifesto but are they following what they preach?. That is another issue to look for while voting for the position blindly, sans the candidate.

During the election, you must be aware of all the propaganda's that some cheap cadres or leaders will be spreading for their benefits. Do not follow them and the rumors. Do vote with your inner belief for the person / parties, freely without any bias. As a matter of fact, you should reject the propagandists.

I am sure you might be having your family member, relative, neighbors as a candidate for this local level election of same or different ideology. But you have to do some judgement in another way here. If you feel he/ she won't do anything bad in comparison to other candidates, then you are going the right direction. Sometimes negative judgement also puts you in safe position.

There are people apathy to all these election developments and say there is no point in voting, citing the incompetent leaders in the power for long duration. I say it is the right time to show your anger, frustration in all these years by voting. Remember all the mishaps that might have hit you in all those years. Change does not mean selecting blindly. Select the right one, vote wisely. Don't be indifferent to all the election development. Participate actively. So that you won't regret later.

Even if its too late to reach out to many, I wrote this in a rush. Do not forget to share for spreading the right. Thank you.

Here is an official video from Election commission regarding the right method of Ballot paper.

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Hari Bahadur, a new fictional book by Hari Bansha Acharya

HariBahadur, a new book by popular actor Hari Bansha Acharya is released today in the capital. In a program at Pragya Bhawan Kamaladi, the book was made public on Baishak 23. Hari Bahadur is one of the popular character from the TV series "Madan Bahadur Hari Bahadur". The character is a symbol of the cunning, clever, thug people in our society. As the character is already in the heart of millions of Nepali people, this book is learned to take Nepal by storm. 

Ma of Ma-ha (the duo), Mr. Madan Krishna Shrestha launched the book in front of hundreds of people. In the program, Madan Sir mentioned of the character's presence all around us. He even cited the reason for the current political situation due to the presence of such Hari Bahadur character in Nepali politics. 

He congratulated his friend, his career partner for the second book. The first book was his autobiography named "China Harayeko Manche". 

Madan Krishna Shrestha even revealed his book to come soon in the market, may be this Dashain of the year 2074.

The actor even staged a program for the character interview to the faked journalist character of Mr. Rishi Dhamala. Though you have trouble dealing them everyday in real life, it is always fun to view the character as put by the actor Hari Bansha Acharya. Similarly, the book will be worth the read.

Having said and known all, I cannot wait to get it and read it at one sitting. As told by the host Rabi Lamichane, the book is so interesting that you will complete reading in one shot.
The price of the book is Rs 398. I am sure the book is available in all major stored of the country.

The host mentioned of the tour of the Har Bahadur to 11 places of the country. Where people can actually meet the character, interact and get a signed copy of the book.

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Latest survey shows demand for 4G in Nepal

I may have been writing here & there but its been a while I have been active here. Its always better to be here in my personal blog to write whatever I like. Last article (not here), I had written about my preference for 4G being a better technology and the reasons for following the cellular evolution here in Nepal. While other parts of the world are going through the research, development and standardization cycle for 5G, Nepal is now in the verge of accepting 4G technology. This article, I am referring to the survey result done by Nepalitelecom.com, that shows the tendency of people for 4G in Nepal. The survey done during the 4G launch in Nepal, has got responses mainly from the major cities in Nepal.

From the survey result, It is interesting to know that the most of the city dwellers are awaiting 4G in their area. That does not mean there is no demand in other growing areas but it is in the cities that most operators start with. For some, the reasons for not expecting 4G is due to their doubt for the affordability of the service and the handsets. The voice service from VoLTE, found to be better quality than the legacy voice, also seems to allure customers for 4G.

Speed with 4G.

Currently, the maximum speed of 4G in Kathmandu and Pokhara is up to 30 Mbps speed with Nepal Telecom. The result shows that 42 percent of the people want 30 Mbps or more speed. If we see the result other way, more than 90 percent people now want speed greater than 5 Mbps. This is quite surprising to know such huge demand of people for the speed.

Price of 4G Handsets

Though there are quite a lot of ranges for the 4G handsets, their survey result shows that 43% people can afford Rs 25,000. That is they are most likely to spend near to Rs 25,000 for a 4G smartphone, which is perfect price for a mid ranger.

Which 4G data package seems good?

They also found out out the popular data package in 4G comes at 5GB (with 100 minutes free call) per month. As in India, the voice call with 4G is free of cost, after subscribing some data packages. The unlimited free data and calls from Jio  is also going to close in the end of March. Similar will be the case later here in Nepal, for free voice calls. But I doubt the true unlimited internet with 4G mobile to exist any time soon.

The survey result shows, 50% people want more than 2 GB data with 4G. Some even prefer unlimited internet which they believe can be provided by the telecom operators but others felt the operators limitation for true unlimited data service, considering resource restriction, high internet costs from abroad, high equipment costs and any network error resulting in worst experience. For the usage of 4G at their home, most people say unlimited 4G internet as the prerequisite. Others prefer free home device, free local content like videos, songs that can make 4G alternative to their current home broadband. The survey even showed the feasibility of providing television service with 4G, including broadcast or movies on demand.

As mentioned in the previous article, the latest cellular evolution is known to include the data connection to almost all devices. For this, majority of people here expressed their interest to connect home devices including house hold appliances, if there would be any such technology here.

Huge demand for 4G

Last time, I had mentioned of the people's eagerness, hesitation to acquire the 4G technology. Nepalitelecom survey shows the huge demand for 4G in city areas and the feasibility of several other services including Television in 4G here. This sort of result is likely to encourage operators for planning and investing more on 4G. This time, one operator is struggling to get the 4G license and another opting for better use of the spectrum. Other operators may also join the race but now they are still in infancy state for launching 4G due to insufficient infrastructure. Later the unavoidable competition will make people adapt to 4G.

If you want to read the whole survey result, do visit here.

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GSM network shutdown in Nepal !!

Now that 4G is here in Nepal, in two cities Kathmandu and Pokhara, people from all parts of the country are demanding 4G in their area. As of now, soft launch of 4G is made by Nepal Telecom available only to Postpaid users. Very soon, they are launching it to Prepaid users. 

So, there are 3 networks, viz: 2G, 3G and 4G services in GSM technology family, available to the customers. Currently in Nepal, 4G is a data only technology where voice is being provided through CSFB (fall back) to legacy 2G, 3G networks. But some operators abroad have already deployed VoLTE for voice calls through LTE network.

There is a big question like why do you need such three types of network to the subscribers for same kind of services, also when better quality data and voice services are available through latest technologies. It is not only good quality and advanced services that we get from new technologies, but these technologies are also more efficient in many terms to the customer and the operators. For customers, you can get high speed data and HD quality voice at the same rate or even cheaper. For operators, the spectrum efficiency is very high for the latest technologies. Much relief to the operators as they can also maximize the usage of spectrum by re-farming the existing frequency chunk, along with the huge cut off in the time to market for 4G and the total cost of ownership. By that way, they can also launch the latest technologies without getting additional spectrum from the regulator (lengthy auction process). This is also what was done by Nepal Telecom to launch 4G in 1800 MHz, coexisting with GSM network.

4G in the world.

4G can also provide 100s of Mbps speed with the non-continuous spectrum and  nearly 2 billion subscribers are currently with 4G out of 8 billion connected users worldwide. This is from around 500 LTE networks in around 164 countries. As per GSMA, the number of LTE networks and countries is known to grow high in 2017.

GSM shutdown in other parts of the world.

Operators in several countries have already started shutting down their GSM network to use the same spectrum for 4G or 3G network. Mostly used frequencies for 2G are 900 MHz, 1800 MHz (a.k.a DCS) but there are also other rarely used frequencies like 850 and 1900 MHz mostly in America. In Nepal, GSM is being provided by 900 MHz and 1800 MHz only.

Telstra, the largest operator in Australia is the first one to bid farewell to GSM network in 2016. Other operators in Australia Like Optus, Vodafone are also following suit in 2017. Earlier Telstra  shutdown their CDMA 850 MHz to use it for 3G network.

The latest to join the GSM shutdown is AT&T of USA, who termed it as 2G or GSM sunset. It is done in the second week of January 2017. 

Three operators of Singapore, namely Singel, StarHub and M1 had jointly announced the GSM shutdown date to be April 2017. Many operators have either announced the date for the shutdown or they have stopped extending GSM coverage. As per some technology experts, GSM will stay till 2020 when 5G networks becomes available. Some European Operators have quite interestingly told to shutdown 3G before 2G.

How it is possible?

The shutdown is possible as their 3G and 4G is made more ubiquitous like around 90 percent coverage. So, GSM subscribers got down heavily with the entrance of 3G and 4G network. They also managed the easy handset update, either free or at nominal cost. For us in Nepal, it is a daunting challenge but it is not impossible. So the popular phrase of "GSM is here to stay", will not be valid in the long term here for Nepal.

Shutdown in Nepal

The best part is the regulator, Nepal Telecom Authority (NTA) had already started providing  technology neutrality license in some specified bands but later all spectrum bands can be operated for 3G, 4G technologies and beyond. It is due to this term, that Nepal Telecom operated 4G in 1800 MHz. Now it is also possible to launch either 3G or 4G in the 900 MHz band. It now solely depends on how the operators migrate their customers to more efficient technologies to pave the way for 2G network closure. In Nepal CDMA shutdown can happen within three years as there is no further evolution and people are also opting GSM over CDMA.

The official shutdown of the network may be overnight but the preparation to the shutdown along with the migration is rather a slow or gradual activity. With proper preparation and migration plan, they can announce the shutdown to be done in some years time and let people chose other technology before the shutdown.

Some people are skeptic of the coverage and availability of mobile network in their area after the shutdown. As they complain only poor GSM network is available for voice in there and ask what may happen if that technology is also gone!!! So that's why the new technology availability must be ensured along with the update of their devices.

Device Ecosystem: 

Most operators abroad need not worry about the devices available in the market. As with their huge no. of customer base and their partnership with device vendors, they can coordinate to make devices available as per their requirement of spectrum combination. That thing is not easy for us due to small market compared to others. As many operators have already reused the frequency bands of GSM, such devices are readily available in the market

M2M services:

There will be much impact on M2M services with the shutdown as majority of such devices use cheap GSM/ GPRS module for the small data connectivity. For the upgrade, first it will be costly for the module upgrade. So some operators mostly Europeans may opt 3G shutdown before 2G, till LTE-M or NB-IoT or EC-GSM (for small data connectivity) gets matured there. It is not a big deal for much, as the numbers are very few and they can make use of 3G, 4G devices for the same.

Better coverage and Receiver sensitivity

As mostly GSM operates in 900 MHz in the rural areas, usage of latest technologies with the Sub 1GHz spectrum is more advantageous due to better radio characteristics  for a country like us with more rural areas in Plain, Hilly and Mountainous regions. Also the receiver sensitivity is more high with latest technologies, reaching out to more areas even in the same spectrum as compared to 2G.

The data usage in Nepal is increasing with more video & multimedia contents. Also the demands for broadband is more high in rural areas and also HD voice quality is possible with efficient VoLTE. Using Spectrum that are currently operational for GSM, the operators here in Nepal can timely and easily cater the increasing demand of broadband coverage in all parts of the country. What it requires, is a proper plan for migration of the subscribers and the availability of either 4G or 3G in all areas of the country. And I don't see it happening before 2020.

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