May 15, 2017

Prediction of Local level election 2074

As the first level of local elections is done, people are now curious about the result. My late post on whom to elect in this local election has reached out to 400 people who had read it but don't know if they had actually followed it.
The vote count has started from late night in some areas and from early morning today. Television channels, online news portal, FMs have started providing the first vote count updates from different parts where the count has begun from late night. Well, I am more concerned with the result in the major metro cities of Nepal. There are 4 metro cities, all of which conducts the local election on Baishak 31 (Yesterday).

Exit polls also have given out some prediction result. Due to the collaboration between some ruling parties vs opposition parties, the election result can be told to be obvious. But it can not be assured that the collaboration will yield exactly the same result.

The exit polls have already showed that the same big parties will have major seats around the 3 states, namely 3,4,6. So, its gonna be Nepali Congress (NC), Yemale (UML) and Maoists who will rule the result. For the highest no of seats, NC and UML will definitely be head to head. As per the Exit polls and the trend for the people preference for opposition due to their ultra vocal agendas, UML is known to lead in the no of seats. There could be only few no of seats difference between UML and NC.
After NC and UML, there will be huge gap for the no of seats win by Maoists. The newly united Ra.Pra.Pa may assume the fourth position after the Maoist Party but the no of seats for both the parties is known to be very low.

Lets put my prediction for the Mayor of major 4 Metro cities of Nepal.

Last Constituent election, I have done the same for the prediction of  all 10 areas of Kathmandu where nine of them came true. Find out here.

Pokhara is now the biggest metro city of Nepal. Here, there is collaboration between NC, Maoists for NC Mayor. So the heavy weight of NC candidate is likely to win the Mayoral position. But the competition is known to be tough between NC and UML candidates here.

Kathmandu is the home to the highest number of educated voters in Nepal. But are they going to make some changes in the election result here?? Well that is quite doubtful!!! Independent candidates from Bibeksheel: Ranju Darshana and Sajha Party's Kishore Thapa are in the limelight here, apart from major parties candidate. Mayor candidate from UML is supported by Ra. Pra. Pa. So it seems UML Bidhya Sundar Shakya may win but it is also equal likely for NC Raju Raj Joshi to lead KTM mayor. It is because in the last Constituent assembly election, NC had a good position here. As it is told that both the independent candidates Ranjana and Kishore will swing votes from NC supporters, UML's candidate is in upper hand. Now, it all depends on how much votes Ranjana and Kishore Thapa have stolen from NC. 

Lalitpur is another major metro city of Nepal. In the last Constituent assembly election, Congress had a landslide victory in all of the areas there. So, despite the alliance between UML, Ra.Pra.Pa, NC is most likely to win here.

Bharatpur: As NC has decided formally to support Maoists candidate Renu Dahal, she may win the mayoral position if NC supporters follow it accordingly. As we have heard some dissatisfaction for this collaboration, it is equally likely for the UML candidate to come as winner. Even if fifty percent of NC supporters follow their central whim, Renu Dahal (the daughter of current PM Pushpa Kamal Dahal a.k.a Prachanda) will win.

No matter who wins, I expect major changes to make our lives better here in the metro cities and other areas. When the vote count results are coming, I have found this (below) in the morning. Hope this sort of issues will be solved from the newly elected people's representative.

Disclaimer: The predictions are solely based on my intuition and what I have found, following news reports and discussing with the people from different places. 


Yakthungba September 7, 2017 at 4:55 AM

How about Limbuwan Parties in the election ?

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